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Prediction for CME (2021-05-13T19:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-13T19:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16902/-1
CME Note: The source of this CME is an eruption seen in SDO/AIA 193 starting at 2021-05-13T15:42Z north from Active Region 12822. The eruption features a broad dimming region north of the active region. A post-eruption arcades are visible in SDO/AIA 193/171; opening field lines are seen in STA EUVI 195 as well. This eruption possibly has two B-class flares associated with it (B1.1 class flare peaking at 2021-05-13T16:21Z and B1.2 class flare peaking at 2021-05-13T18:15Z). The resulting CME is best seen to the West in STEREO-A COR2 imagery. It appears as a faint partial-halo to the North of SOHO/LASCO C2/C3 coronagraphs. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: A flux rope is visible around 2021-05-16T18:36Z and may correspond to the flank of the CME. From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla, "This is a kind of Flux rope. The ICME signatures are not so clear, there is no shock and sheath...ICME identification is based on remote sensing expectations. It may be the flank of a streamer blow out or blob."
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-16T18:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-18T02:15Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.
expected arrival time: 2021-05-18T02:15:00
time_uncertainty: 12
min_estimated_peak_K: 3
max_estimated_peak_K: 6
probability_of_arrival: 80

:Issued: 2021 May 17 1401 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/bul
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity             #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
WEEK 1063 from 2021 May 10
SOLAR ACTIVITY
---------------
NOAA Active Region (AR) 2822 (Catania sunspot group 93) produced three C-class flares
during the week and started decaying. NOAA AR 2823 (Catania sunspot group 94)
produced only B-class flares and also decayed significantly.

A partial halo, front-sided, Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed at 19:00UT 13
May by SOHO/LASCO C2. The speed of the CME is measured to be proximately 300 km/s,
but since it was not observed by STEREO-A/Corr2 this speed is a lower limit. Hence,
it is expected to arrive on Earth around the 18 May, but there is large uncertainty
for this prediction.

A negative, equatorial coronal hole crossed the central meridian on 15 May. Due to
its small size and patchy configuration, it is expected to have a minor impact on
Earth. 

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels the entire week. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu for the entire week. The
24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels for the whole week.

Lead Time: 29.82 hour(s)
Difference: -31.65 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2021-05-15T12:47Z

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